Thursday, February 19, 2009

Wednesday Recap--- Thursday Morning comments

Thursday morning commentary
- no real move in equities overseas
- bonds sell off but not dramatically
- Euro rebounds slightly from lows
- since much of the Obama administration is not even in place (the cabinet) it might take
a while to implement and begin the fiscal stimulus package
- SP financials touched a 14 year low in yesterdays session
- Weekly jobless claims due out today (they were at 830 am, will comment later)
- New consumer practice on the rise: rent to own---- furniture, TVs
- Apple sales of computers down 6% in January--- first decline in 3 years
- Office vacancy rates sit around 16.7% right now and could rise to 17.6% which
would be an 18 year high. Expect intense price cutting in rents (projected decrease is 7.4%

Specific plans for the 75 billion housing plan out
1) The plan will allow the GSEs to refinance homes up to 105% of their appraised value
2) Lenders who reduce mortgage rates to borrowers will be compensated by the government
3) The government is raising their commitment to the GSEs

Economists expect more housing price declines. With that being said, the plan should
reduce the number of foreclosed homes, coupled with a falling number of new homes entering
the market should result in a positive for the housing market.

- With the feds projections of inflation going forward, it implies that they intend to keep
interest rates low.

Dan

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