Saturday, February 21, 2009

Is now the worst time to enter the work force?

Is this the worst time you can remember to enter the work force?

Each part of the world has obviously had their fair share of crisis' in the recent past. But what is happening now in the world is a pretty widespread shared problem. I can't talk for all of Europe, but in America we are in a world of s**t it seems like. Peoples wealth is shrinking without them changing a damn thing that they are doing. They still go to work 9-5 everyday and take their 2 weeks vacation per year. I understand housing prices in America were inflated and it was a bubble, but people who are conservative investors are getting absolutely pummeled in their retirement accounts, personal accounts, and their wealth is contracting in a manner that could never be foreseen. It seems the more conservative in the United States you are with your money the more you are getting screwed. Banks are getting bailed out (which I don't agree with but I think is necessary), people who signed mortgages are bailing on them or asking to reduce their principal payment even though they are LEGAL CONTRACTS, and if you didn't invest any of your money to these "strong, stable, secure" companies that fed on this irresponsible spending.... then you are in the clear.

At the same time individuals wealth is contracting, spending is contracting, and the real winner is the fact that jobs are contracting. They are talking about the unemployment rate in America reaching record highs. Firms are shutting down, firms are cutting jobs. Firms that are *at best* stable are able to cherry pick the best of the best talent. Those that lose jobs take all the part time jobs available.

I've been trying for the past month to find a part time job. ANYTHING. Deliver pizzas, work at a gym, work at a grocery store, and there is nothing. I went to Europe in September when jobs in America were still considered "stable" and the economy was "slowing but healthy" and investment banking (the area I wanted to go into was still chugging along. I get back from Europe, and investment banking is almost non existent, and the healthy firms (which I'm not sure there is even a healthy firm in the US anymore) like goldman sachs, can get the best of the best from the unhealthy firms. Even firms like Goldman Sachs were letting go of VERY qualified individuals.

I am so excited to graduate, but the industry which I grew up as a kid fascinated with is in absolute turmoil and there really aren't any jobs. Finance is not the only industry that is having severe problems.

None of my friends seem to be worried, but I think they are oblivious to what is actually going on in this country, and are excited to graduate and think a job is going to fall in their lap.

Even though I am excited to graduate, and it's going to happen, I am absolutely freaked out about attempting to start my career in an industry that may not even recover in my lifetime......

So I ask you... is this one of the worst times you can remember exiting college and attempting to enter the workforce among this worldwide slowdown?

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Wednesday Recap--- Thursday Morning comments

Thursday morning commentary
- no real move in equities overseas
- bonds sell off but not dramatically
- Euro rebounds slightly from lows
- since much of the Obama administration is not even in place (the cabinet) it might take
a while to implement and begin the fiscal stimulus package
- SP financials touched a 14 year low in yesterdays session
- Weekly jobless claims due out today (they were at 830 am, will comment later)
- New consumer practice on the rise: rent to own---- furniture, TVs
- Apple sales of computers down 6% in January--- first decline in 3 years
- Office vacancy rates sit around 16.7% right now and could rise to 17.6% which
would be an 18 year high. Expect intense price cutting in rents (projected decrease is 7.4%

Specific plans for the 75 billion housing plan out
1) The plan will allow the GSEs to refinance homes up to 105% of their appraised value
2) Lenders who reduce mortgage rates to borrowers will be compensated by the government
3) The government is raising their commitment to the GSEs

Economists expect more housing price declines. With that being said, the plan should
reduce the number of foreclosed homes, coupled with a falling number of new homes entering
the market should result in a positive for the housing market.

- With the feds projections of inflation going forward, it implies that they intend to keep
interest rates low.

Dan

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Wednesday Night Commentary

Wednesday Round Up
- Obama passes roughly 275 billion housing plan.
- Plan calls for help to up to 9 million homeowners to refinance or modify their mortgages. Those who
have little equity or even own more than their homes are worth. This will be through both Fannie and Freddie
- 75 billion in direct spending will go to those who are at risk of foreclosures in order to modify loans
-Officials stating today that it will still not even come close to slowing foreclosures.
-Will individuals who misrepresented their income or assets on their original mortgage application be eligible to get taxpayer-funded assistance?
- Doesnt increase demand of houses, doenst solve over supply of houses
- Seems to only be aimed at owners who are in trouble of losing their homes.
- Those who have made all their payments have a right to be upset.
- Huge problem with modifying loans that are already part of another existing security
- Plan includes financial rewards to encourage mortgage companies to modify deliquent mortgages. Also incentives for servicers
and mortgage holders to modigy loans of borrowers at risk of foreclosure.
-Plan limits to only those mortgages owned by Fannie/Freddie- excludes some of the hardest hit markets
- Modifying mortgages is not easy though. Read this for more http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/19/us/19loans.html?hp


-Euro rises from 3 month low on talks that Germany will signal/provide aid for the hurting Euro region.
- Also in Germany a draft of legislation allowing the state to take over lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, paving the way for the first German bank nationalization since the 1930s.

-United States long term inflation number out at 2%
- Officials also downgraded their forecasts for growth this year (set at 1.3%) due to recession and credit crunch.
- The Unemployment rate climed in January to 7.6%, the highest level since 1992. Unemployment is expected
to ride to somewhere around 8%.
- “There is no quick end in sight,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement for the group.

the Europe crisis plot thickens
-Robert Zoellick, World Bank president, has called for European Union-led co-ordinated global support for the economies of central and eastern Europe, even as divisions emerge in the EU over handling the crisis.

So looks like UBS in Switzerland helped clients to evade US taxes..
From FT "UBS on Wednesday agreed to pay $780m (£548m) in fines and turn over some customer names to the US government as part of a landmark settlement in which the Swiss bank admitted it helped thousands of clients evade taxes."

Dan

Wednesday Morning Commentary

- As I write this the Dow is down 30 points after futures pointed to a higher open
-Most overseas markets down. Notably Europe off around ~1% and China, who is now being accused of using a big chunk of their stimulus for stock market speculation. China was off around ~5%
-As France, Spain, Greece, and Ireland face budget problems along with the ongoing crisis in Eastern Europe the dollar remains strong, simply because it appears situations are worse in other parts of the world.
- Check out this article for further reading on the eastern European situation: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06da52fe-fd3c-11dd-a103-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
- Today it is said that Obama is set to unveil a 50bln housing/mortgage rescue plan
- Some random data numbers: GDP report out of Japan (-12.7% at an annual rate). Russian industrial production sank 20% YoY in January and foreign direct investment in Russia plunged 33% in January. Taiwan’s 4Q GDP shrank 8.4% YoY in 4Q. Mexico’s industrial production fell by 6.7% YoY in December
- After all is said and done, GM is asking for 16.6 billion in aid and Chrysler is asking for 5 billion.
-Random fact: Big volume yesterday: +18% on Nasdaq and +29% on NYSE. -4.6% yesterday in the SP500 is "only" the 16th largest decline of the last year.
- Global investors increased purchases of US bonds and US equities by a pretty large percentage in the past month.
- Housing still in a funk and it looks as if no bottom is in sight.

Dan
-

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

2.17.09 Market Commentary

Basically, the way I'm going to structure these posts about market commentary will be something set up like this: First part of the post will be Commentary on the PREVIOUS day, followed by commentary on the current day. When I am able to get to a computer and/or have time, I would essentially like to post the previous days commentary before the markets open, because a lot of the stuff seems pointless.... Anyway, any comments on the structure/content are welcome.

Tuesday Morning Commentary:

-Seems like the UK and Europe in general are hurting or are set to hurt worse than the United States has. The dollar is currently the highest its been all year. The Euro and the Pound are hurting due to the financial crisis sweeping across Europe (keep reading for more)
-Countries like Spain and Ireland's debt rating are under question and even have been lowered. The Euro could retest recent November lows.
-Gold has rallied, and many view this as simply a flight to safety. Historically, the dollar and gold move in opposite correlations, however recently (including today) they rallied together.
-Japan's GDP has been contracting over the past few quarters.
-Even with the stimulus plan attempting to provide confidence, US equity markets still face pressure, due to the downward pressure and forecasting of earnings.
-After Geither gave us the "financial stability plan" to help ailing banks, the markets still hated on the fins and they continued their plunge towards ZERO.
-Even though people are hopping on the Tech/Health Care bandwagon, dont leave out the Global Defense stocks. There will definitely be tensions that arise during economic downturns widespread throughout the world.
-The Government (as part of the stimulus?) is going to force lenders to modify loans, and even allow bankrupcy lawyers to modify loans if banks refuse... --- I smell nationalization
- Another part of the stimulus--- limiting executive pay, is arguably unethical and will cause an exodus of talent to smaller firms. Reading about this brought up the point that a lot of charities and non-profit firms will hurt because of this as the wealthy execs won't donate money like before
-With the stimulus, will there be a sustained growth and acceleration in the level of economic activity the government is trying to achieve? Or not, with the enormous wealth contracting in houses and retirement plans that the US has just gone through.
- General stimulus thoughts: "Something is better than nothing" & "the consensus is there is no consensus on the expected results of the stimulus"
- Although the general public may gain confidence because of the stimulus, its hard for industry professionals and economists to keep an open mind, because honestly how can $8 per paycheck really "stimulate" the economy.
-A lot are arguing a brief spurt of growth followed by a relapse in the economy

Brief summary of key points of stimulus:
Parts of stimulus
-Housing ---8k rebate (doesnt have to be paid back) to first time home buyers
-Auto--- will be able to deduct the purchase's sales tax from taxable income
-Clean Energy sources- weatherizing homes, buying hybrid cars
-Environment-- clean water systems, flood control, pollution cleanup
-Technology- getting broadband in rural areas
-Homeland Security- in Airports
-Infrastructure- transportation projects, highway construction/repair, mass transit, high speed rail
-State governments receiving aid


Nighttime Highlights from Tuesdays Headlines

-Stimulus overall plan: stabalize the banking system and cut back the number of foreclosures, in the longer term cut the budget deficits
-Save/Create jobs

-Stanford firm shutdown on another SEC fraud case. Apparently they defrauded customers using CDs and quoting unrealistic returns. If you can't trust CDs, what the hell can you trust?

Economic Crash in Eastern Europe- fast falling market for exports... drop in currency value
Downgrade banks active in easten europe
Possible EU aid package
- banks in the EU more leveraged than the US was
-the amount of money banks in Austria invested represents 70% of their GDP

-Chrysler asks for 2 billion more in loan from government

-Flight to safety in gold--- reached 7 month high

-Gold is reaching close to platinum price.... major institutions and governments hold gold

-Global economy and US indexes weigh on price of oil

My Personal Comments

- On Tuesday Obama signed stimulus bill ---To me this happened to fast and is simply "rapid fire" legislation
- Who are these guys (in the government) at just a random point in time to make this big decision and pass this stimulus bill so fast?
- People in the industry with Phds dont exactly know what to do so how can we put faith into
the politicians.
- Restructuring/Cost cutting of the auto-makers
- The stimulus to me represents false hope--- a hope to increase confidence a quick fix
- I would say the people hurting the most are going to benefit the most, however they are so far in debt or in such trouble I doubt they
are going to go out and spend that money they are receiving no matter how big or small increments the payments are
- Treasuries seem popular right now, I guess cause the US is apparently incapable of defaulting
- Job creation is a good thing with the stimulus, what happens when the projects are over?

- No real consensus on the economic implications of the stimulus.

-All markets seem broken on worries of the turmoil to worsen--- so I'm sitting on the sidelines

What are the economic implications of the stimulus plan?

Short answer: nobody freaking knows

When writing this post I'm not looking for anything political, but I would like to become more informed on the economic implications/repercussions of the current stimulus that is going to be passed...

Is it things like inflation due to all the money being printed?
What about arguments that it will only a temporary solution?

I'm pretty un-educated when it comes to strictly economic situations that may arise with the stimulus. But I've found some interesting things....

First off, the general consensus is that.... there is no consensus...

With that being said, Economics Phds are not afraid to give their input to the repercussions.


There is no consensus about the impact of the STIMULUS PACKAGE.
While most people agree that the government "should do
something", they disagree over how the package will affect the
economy.

The effects of taxes on the economy is still largely unresolved
question. Economists even disagree about what are the appropriate
tools and methodologies to study the effects of fiscal policies on the
economy.

Economists disagree on the HOW the stimulus package will affect the
economy. Some think that the only effect
is on the confidence. According to these people, Obama projects
confidence, and no matter what the details of the package are, as long
as he looks confident on TV, it will work. Others, using certain
sophisticated models, show that the effects of the stimulus package
will be negative (we transfer funds from the private sector to the
public, which is wasteful). Yet another group of economists, who also
use sophisticated models, find that the package will work. Economists
don't even agree on what it means for the stimulus package to "work"
(what would be considered a success?).

What is the bottom line? The consensus is that there is no consensus
about the current economic crisis. Years after this is over, and
economists will have analyzed the data from before, during and after
the crisis, perhaps we will have better answers to these fundamental
questions (how government policies affect the economy).

Look for my next post on my digestion of all the news that happened today throughout the WSJ/Bloomberg/NYtimes/Marketwatch etc.

Dan


PS
I'm working on a list of future posts (so I don't forget hehe) so I'm going to list them here
1) Why you should invest in platinum (now or soon)
2) Is now the worst time to find a job?
3) Investment Banking Interview thoughts/feelings (I have an interview on Friday)

Monday, February 16, 2009

Is Spam a Viable Business Model?

Is Spam a viable business model?

This is a serious question. I'm not a spammer, but I'm kind of curious after seeing something today.

I don't know how much of you use twitter, but I saw an interesting tactic today involving spam.

The person using twitter was using "jobs" as his main point. He would update his twitter status almost every 5 minutes within each sector of jobs.

So one hour he would make all his posts "investment banking jobs" "private equity jobs" "hedge fund jobs" and so forth. When people search these terms they come up... the person clicks the link, and basically all it led them too was a website full of google ads.

I then looked at their previous posts from the past months. They did some other interesting tactics like offer help on things, offer advice, "how to" tutorials, information on things, and basically all it did was lead them to a page full of google ads.

I would think with the right targeting and right key words, you could get a decent amount of clicks per day.


Beyond twitter, what about forming groups on facebook/myspace and driving people to these ad filled sites?

What about employing people to simply spam websites and online forums.

Most of the people here never fall for it, but the person was actually able to get me to the site with all the google ads. Once I got there though it was obvious what was happening. His site was terribly designed and manage, but I though to myself, if this website was cleaner and the ads were hidden better, the untrained eye would definitely click on some of these links...

Thoughts? Comments?

Disclaimer: I'm not actually going to attempt this, I just wanted to spur some discussion on the topic.